§ Mrs. Ann WintertonTo ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what assessment she has made of the reliability rate of the computer model used during the 2001 foot and mouth disease outbreak to predict the spread of the virus; what percentage of error was expected from the model; if her Department has commissioned a new computer programme for predicting disease spread; and if she will make a statement. [51457]
§ Mr. MorleyThe "Interspread" model was used extensively and on a daily basis in the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak. It proved to be of great value to epidemiologists as an aid to understanding the epidemic and providing advice on control. The simulation proved to be accurate in determining the ultimate size of the epidemic.
138WTwo other models were developed during the course of the epidemic by research groups at Imperial college and Edinburgh and Cambridge universities. Results from all models were broadly consistent.
DEFRA is considering what future work it needs to commission into modelling of disease outbreaks and control measures and will be discussing its requirements with the relevant part of the research community next month.