Gas Imports (Hansard, 30 October 2001)

§ Mr. Wilson

Demand for gas is dependent on a number of factors, including energy prices, GDP growth and the impact of other measures such as the Climate Change Programme. Future demand levels are therefore uncertain and, consequently, the extent to which the UK will need to import gas from Norway or elsewhere cannot be accurately predicted. Against that background, current best estimates are that the UK is likely to become a net importer from around 2005–06 with the possibility of 90 per cent. of the UK's gas being imported by 2020.

Figures from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate show that Norway has about 2,100bcm of remaining discovered gas resources in the North Sea and expects to be able to produce at least 90bcm of gas a year until 2050. The extent to which those resources might be available to meet further UK demand will depend on a number of variable factors, including movements in gas and oil prices, which may affect the anticipated level of production; any growth in Norway's domestic demand for gas; competition for Norway's gas from other purchasers in Europe and elsewhere; and the availability of capacity in infrastructure linking Norwegian supplies to the UK. Although there will be a point at which Norwegian gas will be unable to meet further UK demand, it is difficult to give a meaningful estimate of when that might be.

I am, however, fully aware of the need to secure longer term security of supply from a range of sources and this is one of the issues under consideration as part of the Performance and Innovation Unit's current review of energy policy.