§ Mr. JackTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what steps he is taking to improve the short-term forecasting of tax receipts. [18549]
§ Dawn PrimaroloShort-term forecasts are routinely monitored against outturns, the reasons for discrepancies identified where possible, and allowances are made for these in future forecasts where necessary.
§ Mr. JackTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) if he will publish for each month of the current financial year the error rate occurring between the projected tax and VAT receipts and those which actually resulted; [18550]
(2) if he will place in the Library details of the economic model used by the Inland Revenue to forecast monthly tax receipts. [16304]
§ Dawn Primarolo[holding answer 23 November 2001]: I refer the right hon. Gentleman to my reply of 14 November 2001, Official Report, column 775W, the answer the Financial Secretary gave him on 20 July under cover of a letter and the letter which the Economic Secretary sent him on 27 September (copies of both of which have been placed in the Library of the House).
§ Mr. JackTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer how many staff are used by the Inland Revenue and HM Customs and Excise to produce the monthly short-term forecasts of tax receipts; and what the annual costs for this exercise are. [18551]
§ Dawn PrimaroloAround 18 staff spend a small proportion of their time producing the monthly forecasts of tax receipts. No estimates of the annual cost are available.
§ Mr. JackTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list the(a) sections and (b) those of grade 3 and above in the Treasury which receive copies of the Inland Revenue and Customs and Excise short-term receipts forecasts and state for each recipient the use to which the information is put. [18552]
§ Dawn PrimaroloThe sections that receive the short-term forecasts are: Public Sector Finances, Exchequer Funds and Accounts and the Debt Management Office. No officials of grade 3 and above routinely receive copies of these forecasts.
§ Mr. JackTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will publish the methodology used to produce the levels of current receipts shown in table C4 of Budget 2001 and show how this related to the contents of paragraph C17, C18 and C19 of Budget 2001. [18553]
1012W
§ Dawn PrimaroloTable C4 is consistent with the Office for National Statistics methodology for Public Finance Statistics. The assumptions mentioned in paragraphs C17–19 of Budget 2001, together with those in Box Cl, are used as the basis for the projections by the Inland Revenue, and Customs and Excise for taxes, on a tax by tax basis, and the Treasury for other receipts. Details of how these assumptions are converted into forecasts for revenues are given in Forecasting the Public Finances in the Treasury, by Tim Pike and David Savage, Fiscal Studies, 1998. This is available from the publications section of the Institute of Fiscal Studies website www.ifs.org.uk.
§ Mr. JackTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement on the way in which the Treasury uses the short-term forecasts of tax receipts provided by Her Majesty's Customs and Excise and the Inland Revenue. [18554]
§ Dawn PrimaroloThe short-term forecasts are mainly used in the short-term management of Government cash flows.
§ Mr. JackTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement listing the facts and information used by(a) the Inland Revenue and (b) Customs and Excise to produce the short-term forecasts of tax and receipts referred to in the letter of 27 September sent to the right hon. Member for Fylde. [18555]
§ Dawn PrimaroloI have nothing further to add to the information contained in that letter.