Gulf Stream Effects (Hansard, 8 May 2001)

§ Lord Whitty

The best available evidence from climate models suggests that, although the North Atlantic circulation could slow as the climate changes, 181WA it will not lead to a cooling of the United Kingdom, as direct greenhouse warming will more than offset the reduction in Gulf Stream heat. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded that the risk of a major change in the North Atlantic circulation is remote over the next 100 years. However, since marked cooling linked to circulation changes are known to have occurred over 10,000 years ago, it is important to further explore the potential for such occurrences in the future. This is an area of active research, and includes work at the Met Office's Hadley Centre and other major UK institutes, and a new research programme (Rapid Climate Change) proposed by the NERC.

In 1997, the Government established the UK Climate Impacts Programme to help organisations assess their vulnerability to climate change and assist them in planning responses to adapt to it. To underpin these assessments, the UKCIP provides information based on the latest understanding of climate change. The work of the UKCIP is helping to raise both institutional and public awareness of the effects that climate change might have on the UK. The Government also recognise the need to adapt to some changes in climate and have already taken initial action to build adaptation into their own policies in sectors such as flood defence, land use planning and water resources.

The Government believe that the best way to address such potential irreversible changes is to ensure successful international action in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. We published our Climate Change Programme last year which sets out how the UK plans to meet its climate change targets, and are committed to making Kyoto work.