§ Lord Juddasked Her Majesty's Government:
What is their evaluation of the climate, economic, social and agricultural implications of the reported forecast by NASA of a "sub El Nino" occurrence in 2002; what contingency plans they are themselves preparing and what contingency plans they are advocating in the European Union and the United Nations. [HL1315]
§ Lord WhittyThe occurrence of a weak "El Nino" in 2002 would have little, if any, effect in the UK or the rest of Europe. Recent strong El Ninos, such as that in 1997–98, had little impact in Europe. There is therefore no need for the Government or the European Union to consider contingency plans, beyond existing plans, which in some cases are already being developed because of recent adverse experiences, such as floods.
In those countries likely to be affected by El Nino, there is now a generally high awareness of its likely impacts and they keep a close watch on its behaviour. Regional Climate Outlook Forums, convened under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organisation, take into account current El Nino predictions and other forecast information (including the Met Office's seasonal predictions) and involve regional end-users who can act on the forecasts and likely impacts.
El Nino forecasts have low reliability much beyond a few months.