§ Mr. LawsTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what the size is of the safety margin built into future borrowing forecasts, referred to in paragraph B3, page 164, of the pre-Budget report, for each of the next three financial years; and if he will make a statement. [20218]
§ Mr. Andrew SmithThe public finance projections in the pre-Budget report are based on cautious assumptions audited by the National Audit Office (NAO)
In addition, the robustness of projections is tested against an alternative more cautious scenario, in which the level of trend output is assumed to be lower than in the central case, as illustrated in chart 2.5 on page 29 of the pre-Budget report
Further detail is set out in Box B1 and Chapter 2, paragraphs 2.60 and 2.61 of the pre-Budget report
§ Mr. LawsTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what assumptions for the level of unemployment in(a) 2001, (b) 2002, (c) 2003 and (d) 2004 were used in drawing up the economic and budgetary forecasts made in the pre-Budget report; and if he will make a statement. [20319]
§ Mr. Andrew SmithThe assumption for unemployment used in the public finance forecasts presented in the pre-Budget report is based on the average of outside forecasters' forecasts for unemployment, in line with NAO audited conventions. Assumed annual average unemployment figures are shown in the table. The Government, in line with the practice of previous Administrations, does not publish forecasts for unemployment
525W
Claimant unemployment assumption for the 2001 pre-Budget report Public Finances Forecast, based on average of outside Forecasters 1 forecasts million UK seasonally adjusted claimant unemployed 2000–011 1.05 2001– 02 0.97 2002–03 1.06 2003–04 1.14 1Outturn