§ Mr. LidingtonTo ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what his Department's predicted two-year reconviction rate for offenders serving community sentences is in each year from 2001 to 2004, inclusive. [159031]
§ Mr. BoatengPredicted two-year reconviction rates used in the measurement of Public Service Agreement (PSA) targets are not statistical forecasts, but are adjustments made once actual reconviction rates are known which make allowances for variations in the age, sex, offence and previous criminal history profile of persons commencing community sentences. These factors are known to be associated with the risk of reoffending. The purpose of the "predicted" rate is to ensure that comparisons between the reconviction rate when an improvement target was set and the reconviction rate when improvement is measured are meaningful.
The predicted rates will also take account of external factors associated with other PSA targets, which impact on reconviction, but not on the underlying rate of reoffending. The external factors include reduced delays in achieving a conviction (PSA target 8) and the increased proportion of recorded crimes where the offender is brought to justice (PSA target 6).
The predicted rate can be calculated only when the characteristics of offenders commencing community sentences in a given year are known.