§ Mr. GibbTo ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what research underlies his forecast for the level of greenhouse gas emissions after 2000. [135055]
§ Ms HewittAt a broad level, the DTI is responsible for projections of energy demand which are used to project carbon dioxide emissions, while the DETR and MAFF have responsibility for projections of other greenhouse gases.
Projections of carbon dioxide emissions are based on the energy demand projections which are generated by the DTI's energy model, which has been developed through extensive research over many years. The approach taken to modelling energy demand is described in chapter 2 of a working paper made available in March this year. A copy of the working paper, entitled "Energy Projections for the UK", is available in the Library of the House. The DETR also funds extensive research into carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions from specific sectors such as non-domestic buildings, manufacturing industry and road transport to help inform Government projections.
Methods for projecting emissions of the other greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride) have been developed by DETR and MAFF based on many years of Government funded research. The projections were updated recently by independent consultants for inclusion in the draft Climate Change Programme and provided as a working paper entitled "Projections of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases For The United Kingdom", March 2000, WS Atkins Limited, also available in the Library of the House.