§ Mr. YeoTo ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what assessment he has made of the recent research by the International Energy Agency on future supplies and prices of oil; and if he will make a statement. [121421]
§ Mrs. Liddell[holding answer 9 May 2000]: The International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest "World Energy Outlook (1998)" considers energy demand and supply for 10 world regions over the period to 2020 and concludes that world oil production from conventional sources could peak around 2015. This would result in a transfer from conventional oil to unconventional oil (for additional supplies) and might produce a rise in oil prices. The IEA's conclusions fall roughly in the middle of a range of projections from researchers which, at the extremes, envisage oil production peaking as early as 2005, or as late as 2050.
The IEA is currently preparing its "World Energy Outlook 2000", and hopes to publish this document in November 2000. My officials have been in contact with their IEA colleagues and I understand that some changes will be made to the methodology adopted by the IEA which will further improve the value of their research into future world energy demand and supply.