§ Mr. BrakeTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what mechanism is in place to ensure that, for the purpose of compiling the sub-national population projections, migrants to the United Kingdom are not recorded at the point of entry to the United Kingdom as well as at subsequent places of residence elsewhere in the United Kingdom within the same statistical period. [116572]
§ Miss Melanie JohnsonThe information requested falls within the responsibility of the Director of the Office for National Statistics. I have asked him to reply.
Letter from Tim Holt to Mr. Tom Brake, dated 30 March 2000
As Director of the Office for National Statistics (ONS), I have been asked to reply to your recent question on recording of migrants to the United Kingdom in the subnational population projections at point of entry as well as subsequent places of residence elsewhere in the United Kingdom within the same statistical period.The projections model takes the ONS mid-year population estimates for the base year. The population is then projected one year ahead, by ageing on the population one year and applying 255W assumptions on births, deaths, international migration to and from England and internal migration within England. This process is then repeated for each year projected.The model treats international and internal migrants separately. The assumptions on international migration in the sub national projections are based on recent past information using a range of survey and administrative data. International in-migrants are assigned to their final destination, not their port of entry and added to the general population in the year of their arrival. As they are then included in the general population, any subsequent moves within England are covered in the internal migration element of the model.