§ Lord Lucasasked Her Majesty's Government:
Whether they still expect BSE to "dwindle to insignificant proportions by the year 2001" (www.maff.gov.uk/animal/bse/index.html); or, if not, what are their current projections for the likely number of cases in United Kingdom cattle for each of the next 10 years. [HL1698]
§ The Minister of State, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (Baroness Hayman)Projections of the number of BSE cases, derived from the Veterinary Laboratories Agency's (VLA) computer model, indicate that the epidemic will continue to decline. The latest VLA forecast as at 4 January 2000 is given in the table:
95% confidence intervals Year Central estimate of confirmed cases Lower Upper 1999 2,083 1,774 2,392 2000 1,114 889 1,339 2001 470 325 615 The expectation is that the outcome, as in recent years, will tend to be closer to the upper 95 per cent confidence interval. Because of their increasing unreliability, neither the VLA nor the Wellcome Trust Centre for Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases makes predictions beyond 2001.