§ Lord Dholakiaasked Her Majesty's Government:
What contribution they expect mandatory sentences to make to the targets for reducing burglary which were announced recently; and [HL1203]
107WAWhat proportion of the expected reduction in burglary they attribute to the mandatory sentence's deterrent effect; what proportion they attribute to the incapacitating effect on offenders who would otherwise have served shorter or non-custodial sentences; and on what empirical evidence they have based those calculations. [HL1204]
§ Lord Bassam of BrightonWe expect the mandatory minimum sentence for a third offence of burglary to reduce recorded crimes by 3,000 a year and possibly up to 17,000 a year in the longer term. These expected reductions are based principally on the incapacitating effect of the sentence. The empirical evidence comes from a number of research studies, including the publicationAnalysing Offending by Roger Tarling (Her Majesty's Stationery Office 1993). We are also conducting a survey of recently sentenced prisoners that may enable us to provide better estimates of the likely reduction of burglaries through incapacitation.