§ Lord Shore of Stepneyasked Her Majesty's Government:
Further to the Written Answer by Lord McIntosh of Haringey on 23 May (WA 78), what are the criteria or definitions that the British Government use in defining an economic cycle; whether the British definition of an economic cycle is the same as that used by the European Commission in the context of economic and monetary union; when the economic cycle that ended in the United Kingdom in the second half of 1996 began; and what the budget surpluses and deficits were as a percentage of gross domestic product in those years. [HL2659]
§ Lord McIntosh of HaringeyThe Treasury's methodology for assessing on-trend points is set out in the publicationFiscal policy: public finances and the cycle (HM Treasury, March 1999). The cycle which ended in the first half of 1997 is estimated to have begun in the second quarter of 1986. The figures for the current budget and net borrowing as a percentage of GDP over the period are shown in Table C 22 of the March 2000 Financial Statement and Budget Report.