§ Mr. GibbTo ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what estimate his Department has made of the likely proportion of electricity generated from(a) gas, (b) coal, (c) nuclear power and (d) renewables in (i) 2003, (ii) 2005, (iii) 2010, (iv) 2012, (v) 2020 and (vi) 2030. [120106]
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§ Mrs. LiddellMy Department has recently prepared estimates of future energy use, covering selected years. Estimates have not been made for any other years. These have been made available in the form of a working paper, representing work in progress, entitled: "Energy Projections For The UK—Working Paper".
Copies of this document have been placed in the Library of the House. The following tables are extracted from Annexe D of the Working Paper. These set out the amounts of generation by type of fuel for two of the six scenarios examined in the Working Paper. As an example, in 2010, coal's share of generation varies between 10 and 22 per cent., that of gas between 45 per cent. and 59 per cent., while nuclear's share varies between 18 per cent. and 19 per cent.
Electricity generation by fuel type, TWh CL 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Coal 204 145 81 43 36 36 36 Oil 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 Gas 0 57 131 184 214 244 265 Nuclear 59 81 93 87 66 40 27 Renewables 5 6 11 22 37 37 37 Imports 14 18 19 16 10 9 8 Total 297 315 335 352 363 366 373
CL 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Coal 204 145 86 90 78 59 52 Oil 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 Gas 0 57 124 126 157 204 230 Nuclear 59 81 93 87 66 40 27 Renewables 5 6 11 22 35 35 36 Imports 14 18 19 17 11 10 9 Total 297 315 334 341 347 348 354 Note:
Class "CL" represents a scenario assuming a central view of economic growth, together with low energy prices, while the "CH" scenario is based on central economic growth, together with high energy prices. Further details of the assumptions and modelling basis for these figures can be found in the Working Paper.