§ Mr. LoveTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food how many cattle were affected by BSE in each of the last two years for which figures are available; what the projected numbers are for the next five years; when he expects that BSE will be eradicated from the United Kingdom herd; and if he will make a statement. [127842]
§ Ms QuinBSE was confirmed in 3,178 animals first placed under restriction in 1998, and in 2,254 animals first placed under restriction in 1999. To the end of June 2000, 611 cases of BSE had been confirmed with 223 diagnoses outstanding (of which about 80 per cent. are expected to be confirmed). The latest (3 July) forecasts of the BSE epidemic produced by the VLA model are given in the following table:
Year Estimated confirmed BSE cases 95 per cent. confidence levels 2000 1,115 890 1,340 2001 477 330 624 2002 171 84 258 It is not yet possible to give a precise date when the disease will be eradicated from the UK.