HC Deb 13 July 2000 vol 353 cc666-71W
Tony Wright

To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what recent evidence he has collated on the correlation between the level of crime and(a) police numbers and (b) police funding. [129496]

Mr. Charles Clarke

In response to the intervention of the right hon. Member for Southwark, North and Bermondsey (Mr. Hughes) in the debate on the Crime Reduction Strategy on 29 November 1999,Official Report, columns 21–38, officials in my Research, Development and Statistics Directorate assembled information on changes in police numbers and recorded crime rates between (i) 1996–97 and 1998–99; and (ii) 1993–94 and 1998–99. The analysis is set out in Tables 1 and 2. Table 1 shows that 12 of the 21 top performing forces had falls in police numbers over the last two years, whereas in the other group of 22 forces, 14 had falls. At the individual force level, however, there seems little obvious statistical link between performance and police numbers. Table 2 shows that, over five years, there is little difference in the number of forces with falls in numbers in the top 21 forces and the bottom 22. Again, though, there is a very mixed picture overall, with the statistical relationship between police numbers and changes in crime over this period weak.

Other analysis by the Research, Development and Statistics Directorate around the same time also looked at the correlation at police force level between the changes in numbers of crimes, police numbers and police funding. The results are in Table 1. They show no association that carries much statistical weight when comparing forces. The strongest association is between increasing budgets leading to increasing officers.

Historic figures on overall police numbers in England and Wales and the total number of recorded crimes are in the Library.

Table 1: Percentage change in recorded crime rates 1996–97 to 1998–99 and percentage change in police numbers
Number offences per 100,000 population Police numbers
1996–97 1998–99 Percentage change Percentage change Fall/rise
23 Dorset 7,098 6,386 -10 -0.4 Fall 2
24 Suffolk 5,709 5,143 -10 0.9 Rise
25 Norfolk 7,249 6,534 -10 -3.5 Fall 3
26 Leicestershire 9,738 8,796 -10 2.3 Rise
27 West Midlands 11,597 10,511 -9 2.9 Rise
28 Staffordshire 8,773 7,969 -9 1.2 Rise
29 Cheshire 6,657 6,050 -9 1.2 Rise
30 Cumbria 7,852 7,147 -9 -1.5 Fall 4
31 Warwickshire 7,666 7,081 -8 -2.0 Fall 5
32 Wiltshire 5,943 5,503 -7 -0.3 Fall 6
33 Sussex 8,092 7,494 -7 -7.7 Fall 7
34 Dyfed-Powys 3,967 3,737 -6 2.2 Rise
35 Thames Valley 8,224 7,750 -6 1.4 Rise
36 Merseyside 9,757 9,240 -5 -0.5 Fall 8
37 West Yorkshire 12,311 11,679 -5 -4.4 Fall 9
38 Derbyshire 8,072 7,670 -5 -1.8 Fall 10
39 South Wales 10,099 9,780 -3 0.2 Rise
40 Humberside 13,801 13,483 -2 -3.4 Fall 11
41 Northamptonshire 9,178 9,150 0 -3.3 Fall 12
42 Greater Manchester 12,437 13,071 5 -1.6 Fall 13
43 City of London 91,405 115,282 26 -9.4 Fall 14
England and Wales 9,515 8,584 -10 -1.0 —

Changes between 1996–97 and 1998–99
Number offences per 100,000 population Police numbers
1996–97 1998–99 Percentage change Percentage change Fall/rise
Top 21 forces 8,790 7,464 -15 -0.2 -88
Average -15 -0.5 -4
Bottom 21 forces 10,015 9,363 -7 -1.4 -1,122
Average -5 -1.4 -51

Table 2: Percentage change in recorded crime rates 1993–94 and percentage change in police numbers
Number offences per 100,000 population Police numbers
1993–94 1998–99 Percentage change Percentage change Fall/rise
1 Northumbria 14,658 9,271 -37 6.7 Rise
2 Durham 11,024 7,262 -34 13.4 Rise
3 Kent 10,346 7,040 -32 1.8 Rise
4 Gloucestershire 11,519 7,867 -32 -4.7 Fall 1
5 Surrey 6,644 4,638 -30 -0.4 Fall 2
6 Devon and Cornwall 7,876 5,703 -28 -0.9 Fall 3
7 Dyfed-Powys 5,082 3,737 -26 6.3 Rise
8 Cheshire 8,180 6,050 -26 8.9 Rise
9 Bedfordshire 10,750 7,957 -26 -9.5 Fall 4
10 Avon and Somerset 11,853 8,926 -25 -1.1 Fall 5
11 Lincolnshire 8,451 6,412 -24 -5.4 Fall 6
12 Essex 7,504 5,722 -24 -1.6 Fall 7
13 Hampshire 8,420 6,525 -23 6.2 Rise
14 Warwickshire 9,131 7,081 -22 -13.2 Fall 8
15 Nottinghamshire 15,406 11,983 -22 -4.4 Fall 9
16 Wiltshire 7,022 5,503 -22 -8.9 Fall 10
17 Suffolk 6,547 5,143 -21 -1.5 Fall 11
18 South Yorkshire 12,133 9,538 -21 4.8 Rise
19 Thames Valley 9,843 7,750 -21 -4.1 Fall 12
20 North Wales 7,079 5,575 -21 2.9 Rise
21 South Wales 12,326 9,780 -21 -4.8 Fall 13
22 Lancashire 9,240 7,379 -20 2.4 Rise
23 Norfolk 8,142 6,534 -20 -4.5 Fall 1
24 Derbyshire 9,479 7,670 -19 -3.4 Fall 2
25 North Yorkshire 8,098 6,558 -19 1.4 Rise
26 Leicestershire 10,854 8,796 -19 9.2 Rise

Table 2: Percentage change in recorded crime rates 1993–94 and percentage change in police numbers
Number offences per 100,000 population Police numbers
1993–94 1998–99 Percentage change Percentage change Fall/rise
27 Cleveland 14,130 11,465 -19 -0.9 Fall 3
28 Dorset 7,870 6,386 -19 -1.4 Fall 4
29 Hertfordshire 6,524 5,307 -19 2.5 Rise
30 West Yorkshire 14,276 11,679 -18 -1.3 Fall 5
31 Cumbria 8,670 7,147 -18 -4.1 Fall 6
32 City of London 139,333 115,282 -17 -12.9 Fall 7
33 Metropolitan Police District 12,123 10,084 -17 -5.9 Fall 8
34 West Mercia 7,409 6,166 -17 -1.7 Fall 9
35 West Midlands 12,416 10,511 -15 4.4 Rise
36 Humberside 15,839 13,483 -15 -3.2 Fall 10
37 Staffordshire 9,293 7,969 -14 1.3 Rise
38 Cambridgeshire 9,417 8,379 -11 0.9 Rise
39 Northamptonshire 9,943 9,150 -8 -2.8 Fall 11
40 Greater Manchester 13,804 13,071 -5 -2.3 Fall 12
41 Merseyside 9,735 9,240 -5 -10.3 Fall 13
42 Gwent 8,815 8,508 -3 25.6 Rise
43 Sussex 7,562 7,494 -1 -5.4 Fall 14
England and Wales 10,605 8,584 -19 -1.6 —

Changes between 1993–94 and 1998–99
Number offences per 100,000 population Police numbers
1993–94 1998–99 Percentage change Percentage change Fall/rise
Top 21 forces 9,969 7,464 -25 0.2 74
Average -26 -0.5 4
Bottom 21 forces 11,070 9,363 -15 -2.5 -2,039
Average -14 -0.6 -93

Table 3: Forces ranked by percentage change in (a) number of recorded notifiable offences; (b) number of police officers, and (3) police force budgets: 1993–94 to 1998–99
Percentage change
Rank of crime decrease1 Rank of change in police numbers increase1 Rank of change in budget increase1 Crime Numbers Budget
Northumbria 1 5 10 -37.3 6.7 28.3
Durham 2 2 2 -34.0 13.4 35.1
Kent 3 13 16 -30.7 1.8 25.3
Gloucestershire 4 34 25 -29.4 -4.7 23.7
Surrey 5 17 37 -28.9 -0.4 20.5
Devon and Cornwall 6 18 36 -26.1 -0.9 21.5
South Wales 7 35 33 -25.9 -4.8 21.9
Dyfed-Powys 8 6 21 -25.3 6.3 24.3
Cheshire 9 4 3 -24.9 8.9 33.1
Bedfordshire 10 40 11 -23.8 -9.5 28.1
Avon and Somerset 11 20 20 -22.7 -1.1 24.6
Essex 12 24 28 -21.7 -1.6 23.2
Nottinghamshire 13 32 14 -21.7 -4.4 26.4
South Yorkshire 14 8 8 -21.4 4.8 29.9
Lincolnshire 15 37 31 -21.3 -5.4 22.7
North Wales 16 10 15 -21.0 2.9 25.5
Warwickshire 17 43 43 -20.6 -13.2 12.6
Hampshire 18 7 7 -20.3 6.2 30.1
Lancashire 19 12 19 -19.5 2.4 24.9
Cleveland 20 19 22 -19.5 -0.9 24.1
Suffolk 21 23 40 -19.2 -1.5 18.6
Wiltshire 22 39 30 -18.9 -8.9 22.9
Norfolk 23 33 9 -17.6 -4.5 28.5
West Yorkshire 24 21 24 -17.5 -1.3 23.7
Derbyshire 25 29 12 -17.5 -3.4 27.8
Thames Valley 26 31 29 -17.5 -4.1 23.1
North Yorkshire 27 14 38 -17.4 1.4 19.2
Cumbria 28 30 34 -17.2 -4.1 21.9
Leicestershire 29 3 6 -16.6 9.2 31.3

Table 3: Forces ranked by percentage change in (a) number of recorded notifiable offences; (b) number of police officers, and (3) police force budgets: 1993–94 to 1998–99
Percentage change
Rank of crime decrease1 Rank of change in police numbers increase1 Rank of change in budget increase1 Crime Numbers Budget
Hertfordshire 30 11 5 -16.2 2.5 32.2
Dorset 31 22 23 -16.0 -1.4 23.8
West Midlands 32 9 18 -15.3 4.4 25.0
West Mercia 33 25 27 -15.0 -1.7 23.5
Humberside 34 28 26 -14.6 -3.2 23.7
Metropolitan Police District 35 38 42 -14.3 -5.9 14.5
Staffordshire 36 15 13 -13.6 1.3 26.5
Merseyside 37 41 41 -7.2 -10.3 18.1
Cambridgeshire 38 16 17 -6.5 0.9 25.0
Greater Manchester 39 26 32 -5.4 -2.3 22.0
Northamptonshire 40 27 35 -4.8 -2.8 21.8
Sussex 41 36 4 2.9 -5.4 32.8
City of London 42 42 39 12.0 -12.9 19.1
Gwent 43 1 1 19.6 25.6 59.4
England and Wales — — — -17.6 -1.6 22.3
11 = biggest

Notes:

1. Budgets:

1992–93 CIPFA Police Statistics Actuals

1998–99 CIPFA Police Statistics Estimates (estimates of net expenditure)

Budgets are in cash terms, not real terms

2. Police numbers:

Do not include secondments

3. Crimes:

Based on old counting rules for both years

Relate to numbers of crimes recorded, not per capita rates

Gwent is an outlier because of boundary changes with South Wales