§ Dr. CableTo ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what quantitative assessment the Government have made of the benefits and costs to the United Kingdom of a comprehensive multilateral trade24W round involving far-reaching liberalisation of trade in (a) agriculture, (b) manufacturing and (c) services. [99873]
§ Mr. CabornA number of studies have been published estimating substantial income gains to the world and the European Union from further trade liberalisation. Two recent ones are by the European Commission and the OECD. The Commission study covers agriculture, industrial tariffs and services; the OECD study does not include services. These studies do not provide separate estimates of the impact on the UK. However, on the assumption that the UK gains in line with its share of Community output and external trade, it is possible to provide a broad indication of the likely effects on the UK economy. On this basis, the European Commission and the OECD studies suggest that further trade liberalisation could bring income gains for the UK of between $8 billion and $19 billion (£5 billion and £11 billion) per year in terms of 1998 prices and incomes. This is equivalent to an income increase of between £210 and £480 per year for the average UK household. All such estimates are sensitive to assumptions made, particularly about the form, scope and scale of further liberalisation. I shall also be writing to the hon. Member with further information.