§ Mr. BeithTo ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department (1) what were the (i) predicted and (ii) actual
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Actual reconviction rate within two years Rate adjusted for pseudo-reconvictions 1994 Community service—service order 48 41 Probation with probation centre or specified activity requirement 62 57 Other probation 58 52 Combination order 60 55 Custody 56 54 1995 (1st quarter) Community service—service order 51 44 Probation with probation centre or specified activity requirement 62 57 Other probation 58 52 Combination order 60 55 Custody 55 53 reconviction rates for persons sentenced to (a) prison and (b) community orders over the last two years for which figures are available; [75240]
(2) what was the two year reconviction rate, with adjustments for pseudo-reconvictions, for (a) community service orders, (b) probation orders, (c) probation centre with specific activities orders, (d) combination orders and (e) imprisonment at the latest date for which figures are available. [75239]
§ Mr. George HowarthThe most recent available information relates to samples of offenders commencing community penalties or discharged from custody in 1994 and in the first quarter of 1995. Results of a comparison between reconviction rates for the two types of disposal were reported in paragraphs 9.25 to 9.27 in "Prison Statistics, England and Wales, 1997".
The following table contains actual and predicted reconviction rates (within two years of commencement of order or discharge from prison) that were used in this analysis:
Community penalties 1 Custody 1994 Actual reconviction rate within two years 54 56 Predicted rate2 53 59 Actual-Predicted 1 -3 1995 (1st quarter) Actual reconviction rate within two years 56 55 Predicted rate2 54 58 Actual-Predicted 2 -3 1 Probation, community service and combination orders 2 Predicted on the basis of a prediction model applied to community penalty and custody results for a year The differences between actual and predicted rates do not take account of effect of pseudo-reconvictions. After allowing for the influence of pseudo-reconvictions (effectively a four percentage point adjustment in favour of community penalties) the difference between reconviction rates for those commencing orders or discharged from prison in 1994 was, using unrounded percentages, 0.1 percentage points in favour of custody. This suggests there is currently no discernible difference between reconviction rates for custody and community penalties. The difference for the 1995 samples indicates a similar picture with a difference in favour of custody of one percentage point after the adjustment for predicted rates and pseudo-reconvictions had been made.
The two year reconviction rates for different types of community order and imprisonment are as follows:
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