§ Mr. JackTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, pursuant to his answer of 22 February 1999,Official Report, columns 190–91, concerning nv CJD, at what level of risk it ceases to be possible to specify the statistical risk of dying from nv CJD as a result of eating beef-on-the-bone products. [73784]
§ Mr. RookerThere is no scientific proof that BSE can be transmitted to man by beef, but this is seen by SEAC as the most likely explanation, and all our control measures are based on the assumption that it is. In those circumstances, before it will be possible to calculate with any degree of certainty the risk to an individual as a result of eating beef on the bone, we need the answers to a number of key scientific questions
how much infectivity is needed to cause disease in humans;whether repeated exposure to small amounts of infectivity over a period of time can cause disease or whether a single dose is sufficient to result in disease;187Whow susceptible man is to BSE compared with, for example, cattle or mice;whether there are factors such as genetic susceptibility, or the physiology of the human gut, that might affect susceptibility or incubation period in humans compared with other species.It is clearly not possible to conduct direct experiments to test these factors. As the BSE epidemic wanes, any risk declines along with the number of infected animals, but it is not possible to specify the statistical risk for an individual of dying from nvCJD as a result of eating beef on the bone products. In such uncertain circumstances we need to be very cautious about any decision to relax public health protection in this area.