§ Mr. DrewTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list the changes in assumptions made in the latest sub-national population projections. [73915]
§ Ms HewittThe information requested falls within the responsibility of the Director of the Office for National Statistics. I have asked him to reply.
Letter from Tim Holt to Mr. David Drew, dated 3 March 1999:
As Director of the Office for National Statistics (ONS), I have been asked to reply to your recent question asking about the changes to the assumptions used in the latest subnational population projections.The latest subnational population projections for English local and health authorities are based on the mid-1996 population estimates. These projections replace the previous set that were based on mid-1993 population estimates. The assumptions underlying the calculation of the projections are based on recent demographic trends and do not reflect the impact of future policies.The assumptions underlying these latest projections are slightly different to the 1993 set. The main differences are that the new subnational projections use more recent data on fertility, mortality and migration to produce the baseline assumptions for each local authority; and that they sum to the latest national population projections for England that are produced by the Government Actuary's Department. The main difference to these assumptions is that the level of net international migration is now significantly higher in the medium term.These data were subject to consultation with the local and health authorities and the assumptions were refined following comments received during this consultation exercise. Changes were made to the migration assumptions for local authorities if information was provided that indicated that the long term trends were unlikely to continue into the future. Other changes were made to address concerns raised about the quality and use of the internal migration data. Changes made as a result of the consultation for any one authority will affect the assumptions for all other authorities as the projections must sum to the national population projections. The ONS publication, 1996-based Subnational Population Projections, England (PP3 no 10), due out later this year, will explain this in more detail.