§ Mr. WebbTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security if he will estimate the proportion of pensioners800W who will be on (a) income support and (b) other means-tested benefits in (i) 2000, (ii) 2010, (iii) 2020, (iv) 2030,(v) 2040 and (vi) 2050 on the basis of (1) unchanged policies, (2) unchanged policies except for an income guarantee linked to earnings and (3) full implementation of his proposed pensions reforms. [71180]
§ 1. Mr. TimmsThe information is not available in the form requested. Such information as is available is in the table.
Proportion of pensioners receiving income support 2000 2025 2050 Income support linked to prices 1 in 5 1 in 10 1 in 101 Income guarantee linked to earnings 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 3 Full implementation of proposals 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4 Notes:
1assumes no change between 2025 and 2050.
2. Projections to the year 2050 are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, given the number of assumptions that need to be made in making these estimates. Some of those who will be pensioners in 2050 have yet to begin work, and most are in their 20s and 30s.
3. Estimates have been made by extrapolating estimates from the PENSIM model but these can only give a very broad indication of the likely order of magnitude of figures so far into the future. The projections can be applied to estimates of the proportion of pensioners on Income Support, but not to other income-related benefits (such as Housing Benefit and Council Tax Benefit) as projections for these benefits would require many more assumptions to be made and would be surrounded by an unacceptable level of uncertainty.
4. It is our policy that the Minimum Income Guarantee will be increased in line with average earnings over time and as resources permit. For illustration, the first line shows the estimated effect of increasing Income Support only in line with prices over time.