§ Mr. EffordTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions (1) by what percentage he estimates road traffic will increase in the London area over the next 30 years; and what assessment he has made of the impact of this on the speed of traffic; [90648]
(2) by what percentage his Department estimates that road traffic levels will increase over the next 30 years; what assessment it has made of the impact that will have on current rates of traffic movement; and if he will make a statement; [90649]
(3) if he will estimate (a) the cost of building roads to accommodate the projected increase in road vehicles over the next 30 years to maintain current rates of traffic movement and (b) the number of miles of road this would require. [90650]
§ Ms Glenda Jackson[holding answer 12 July 1999]: The National Road Traffic Forecasts published in 1997 predicted that on the basis of the capacity of the road network as it then stood, and in the absence of the new policies set out in the Integrated Transport White Paper, road traffic in Great Britain could increase by nearly 50 per cent. over the next 30 years. This growth was forecast to result in a reduction in average speeds of 10 per cent., although the reduction during the peak on the busiest roads would be substantially greater. The Department is currently working on a new set of traffic forecasts which will reflect the potential of the New Deal for Transport to tackle congestion and pollution.
The 1997 National Road Traffic Forecasts were not designed to provide forecasts at a local level. However, it is possible to use the 1997 forecasts to produce crude estimates of what they imply for traffic growth and speeds in different area types and regions. These estimates suggest 341W that the national figures quoted would imply traffic growth in London of about 30 per cent. over the next 30 years and a decline in average speeds of 14 per cent.
No estimate has been made of the additional road capacity that would be required to accommodate the rates of traffic growth in the 1997 forecasts at unchanged speeds, nor has the Department attempted to quantify the enormous environmental, economic, and social costs that would be involved. Adding road capacity in congested conditions generates additional traffic, thereby adding to the road traffic growth to be accommodated. This link highlights one of the fundamental flaws in the predict and provide philosophy and is a key reason why simply building more roads is not the answer to traffic growth.