Income Support (Hansard, 13 January 1999)

§ Mr. Ruane
To ask the Secretary of State for Social Security if he will list(a) by constituency and (b) by county the number of pensioners that have not taken up their income support entitlement in Wales in the last year for which figures are available. [64657]

§ Mr. Timms
The information is not available.

§ Mr. Webb
To ask the Secretary of State for Social Security what estimate he has made of the proportion of pensioners who will be dependent on income support in 2050(a) on present policies and (b) under his proposed pensions policies. [64707]

§ Mr. Timms
The proposals in the Government' s Green Paper "A New Contract for Welfare: Partnership in Pensions" are designed to ensure that someone with a full working life, or years covered by credits, will receive a pension on retirement above the minimum income guarantee. The impact of the new State Second pension in 2050, once individuals have experienced a full working lifetime under the new scheme is shown in the table accompanying paragraph 14 of chapter 6 of the Green Paper.
The precise impact of the proposals will, therefore, depend on a variety of factors, including employment records and additional voluntary savings. The proposals in "Partnership in Pensions" will promote behavioural changes through the spread of good value funded second pensions, improved pensions education, and the greater reward in retirement form moving from benefits to work.
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Projections forward to the year 2050 are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, given the number of assumptions that need to be made in making these estimates. Some of those who will be pensioners in 2050 have yet to begin work, and most are today in their 20s and 30s.
Estimates have been made by extrapolating projections from the PENSIM model, but these can only give a broad indication of the likely order of magnitude of figures so far into the future.
On the basis of unchanged policies, estimates suggest that approximately 1 in 3 pensioners in 2050 could rely on Income Support. Even if no behavioural changes are assumed, the new insurance contract for pensions will mean that these estimates are reduced to approximately 1 in 4 pensioners receiving income from the Minimum Income Guarantee in 2050, and a lower proportion in years after 2050.

Number of children living in households with below half average income by family type and economic status of parents, 1996–97

Million

Before housing costs (BHC) Couples After housing costs (AHC) Couples

Married Co-habiting Lone parents Married Co-habiting Lone parents

2 working parents 0.3 ¹— 0.0 0.4 ¹— 0.0

1 working parent 0.8 ¹— 0.2 1.0 ¹— 0.3

0 working parents 0.7 ¹— 1.0 0.8 ¹— 1.6

Total 1.8 0.3 1.2 2.2 0.4 1.9

¹The figures for co-habiting couples are not shown because their respective sample sizes are too small to provide robust figures at the required level of detail. However, approximately half of the children belonging to all such couples live in households with at least one working parent.

Source:
All figures are estimates taken from the Households Below Average Income (HBAI) data set based on the Family Resources Survey (FRS).

Number of children living in households with below half average income by family type and economic status of parents, 1996–97
Million
	Before housing costs (BHC) Couples	After housing costs (AHC) Couples
	Married	Co-habiting	Lone parents	Married	Co-habiting	Lone parents
2 working parents	0.3	¹—	0.0	0.4	¹—	0.0
1 working parent	0.8	¹—	0.2	1.0	¹—	0.3
0 working parents	0.7	¹—	1.0	0.8	¹—	1.6
Total	1.8	0.3	1.2	2.2	0.4	1.9
¹The figures for co-habiting couples are not shown because their respective sample sizes are too small to provide robust figures at the required level of detail. However, approximately half of the children belonging to all such couples live in households with at least one working parent.