§ Mr. JackTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what is the current statistical risk of dying from new variant CJD as a result of the consumption of beef on the bone(a) using 1999 data together with the SEAC published 1997 risk analysis formula and (b) provided to him by his Department. [70089]
§ Mr. RookerIt has still not been established that nvCJD is caused by exposure to BSE infectivity in food, but the Government, based on expert scientific advice, have always proceeded on the assumption that it could be. There continues to be great uncertainty about the nature of new variant CJD and about how susceptible people may be to infection. It is, therefore, not possible to estimate the current statistical risk of dying from the disease as a result of consuming beef or beef products which had been cooked on the bone.
In its 1997 advice, the Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee (SEAC) quoted an estimate of a 1 in 20 chance of one case of nvCJD arising as a consequence of exposure to infectivity in dorsal root ganglia in 1998.
In November 1998, SEAC concluded that it was still not known how many people had become infected with nvCJD as a result of exposure to the BSE agent, nor how much BSE infectivity is needed to cause disease. Consequently predictions as to public health risks are very uncertain and SEAC did not quote specific levels of risk. However, the Committee was of the opinion that, in view of the continued decline in the BSE epidemic, the number of infected cows entering the human food chain would be less in November 1998 than in 1997.
On this basis, the Committee concluded that any risk from dorsal root ganglia and bone marrow in 1999 is less than it was 12 months previously. The pattern of experimental results obtained with bone marrow led the 191W Committee to conclude that the risk, if any, from that tissue is likely to be very small. With the Over Thirty Month Scheme in place, the Committee thought it likely that the risk from dorsal root ganglia is also very small and negligible in comparison to the possible risk earlier in the epidemic. Due to the uncertainty, neither SEAC nor Departmental officials has sought to quantify the risks numerically.
The decision to retain the controls on the sale, use and disposal of beef bones was made for the reasons explained to the House by my right hon. Friend the Minister on 4 February 1999, Official Report, columns 1077–82.