§ Mr. Barry JonesTo ask the Secretary of State for Wales if he will make a statement on the consequences of CAP reform in Wales for the(a) beef, (b) sheepmeat and (c) dairy sectors. [80847]
Mr. Jon Owen JonesThe Department has been undertaking research into the potential effects of the Agenda 2000 reforms. It appears, from the preliminary analysis, that the beef sector should benefit, as increased subsidies and decreased feed costs (a consequence of the reform of the cereals regime) are expected to outweigh price reductions.
There are no specific reforms for the sheepmeat sector. However, the sector will benefit from the decreased price of feedstuffs. On the other hand, reductions in the price of beef will increase competitive pressures and are expected to lead to a cut in market prices for sheepmeat. This will be offset by increased Sheep Annual Premium payments. It is unclear at the moment what the net effect will be.
Dairy sector reforms will not be implemented until 2005.
These estimates are taken from work in progress and do not make allowances for restructuring or for movements in exchange rates.