§ Mr. GibbTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list the figures used in preparing Chart 2.4 of the Red Book on the basis of(a) per cent. of GDP and (b) cash terms; and if he will estimate the effect of the same assumptions on the public sector net cash requirement over the same periods. [80866]
§ Ms HewittFigures used in Chart 2.4 as a per cent. of GDP can be found in Table 2.6 of the Red Book and are reproduced from 1990–91 onwards in the following table. Figures for the cautious case can be calculated by applying the ready reckoners set out in Table 3.1 of 'Fiscal policy: public finances and the cycle', published on 9 March alongside the Red Book. Figures can be converted to cash terms using money GDP figures from Table 2.1 of 'Economic Trends', published by the Office for National Statistics, and Table B4 of the Red Book.
The cyclical behaviour of the public sector net cash requirement matches (with opposite sign) that of the current budget. Figures for the cyclically adjusted public sector net cash requirement can thus be calculated by applying the difference between the actual and cyclically adjusted surplus on current budget to the public sector net cash requirement (set out in Tables B26 and B27 of the Red Book). Figures for the cautious case and in cash terms can be calculated by use of the methods set out.
Cyclically adjusted surplus on current budget, central case Per cent. of GDP 1990–91 —0.8 1991–92 —1.2 1992–93 —3.5 1993–94 —3.7 1994–95 —3.3 1995–96 —2.8 1996–97 —2.4 1997–98 —0.7 1998–99 0.2 1999–2000 0.6 2000–01 1.0 2001–02 1.1 2002–03 0.9 2003–04 1.0 Source:
Table 2.6 and Chart 2.4 of the Red Book