New Deal Pilots: Assumptions (Hansard, 18 November 1998)

§ Baroness Blackstone

The information in Annex 2 of the New Deal pilots specification, which is already in the public domain, in fact concerns the proportion of JSA claimants whom we would usually expect to leave JSA within six months of crossing various points in their duration of unemployment. It is derived from the published statistics on JSA claimants aged 18 and over, and is reproduced in the table. 163WA

Length of time unemployed
Leaving JSA within	Inflow	1 year	18 months	2 years	3 years	4 years
3 months	50%	35%	30%	25%	15%	15%
6 months	75%	60%	45%	40%	30%	25%
1 year	90%	75%	65%	60%	50%	45%
2 years	97%	90%	85%	80%	75%	—
3 years	99%	95%	90%	85%	—	—

These figures are intended to give a broad guide to the rate at which people leave claimant unemployment having reached certain durations. Column headings show duration of unemployment reached. Row headings show a further duration of unemployment from that point onwards.

The New Deal for Disabled People will focus on those people in receipt of incapacity benefits. This group consists of around 2.2 million people with a disability or long-term illness in receipt of Incapacity Benefit, Income Support due to incapacity and Severe Disablement Allowance. Nearly half a million new people enter this group each year—slightly more than the annual outflow. We will pilot the Personal Adviser Service element of the programme in 12 areas, covering nearly a quarter of a million people on incapacity benefits (about 10 per cent. of the group). During the pilot we plan to contact the stock over the two years' duration of the pilots and the annual flow during the course of each year.

Information on the off-flow rates of lone parents from Income Support is being collected, and will be sent to the noble Earl as soon as possible.