§ Mr. FlynnTo ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what estimate he has made of the numbers and percentage of the total population aged under 25 years that use(a) cannabis and (b) heroin (i) on a regular basis and (ii) occasionally. [41612]
§ Mr. MichaelThe British Crime Survey (BCS) gives estimates of drug use amongst people aged 16 to 24 living in private households in England and Wales. The most recent estimates are from the 1996 survey, when 39 per cent. of people in this age group said they had used cannabis at some time, 26 per cent. said they had used it in the last year and 16 per cent. in the last month. The proportion admitting to heroin use were: 1.0 per cent. in life-time, 0.4 per cent. in last year and 0.1 per cent. in the last month.
127WThe estimates of heroin use—especially use in the last month—should be treated with great caution, partly because they are subject to very large sampling error, and partly because a household survey such as the BCS is likely to under-represent current heroin users.
Because the findings are subject to sampling error, estimates of the number of people using drugs can be said, with a certain degree of statistical confidence, to fall within a range. The table gives this range, together with the mid-point estimate. The estimates for cannabis use are fairly precise, while those for heroin are not.
Number of 16 to 24 year olds using cannabis and heroin (95 per cent. confidence intervals) (000) Lower estimate Higher estimate Mid-point Cannabis ever used 2,100 2,400 2,300 used last year 1,400 1,700 1,500 used last month 800 1,100 900 Heroin ever used 30 110 60 used last year 10 60 20 used last month 1 40 6 Source:
1996 BCS. Weighted data