§ Dr. GibsonTo ask the Secretary of State for Health what assessment he has made of the trends over the last 20 years, in cancer incidence in children, with particular reference to cancers of the CNS and leukaemia(a) nationally and (b) in the area covered by the East Anglian Regional Health Authority. [33385]
§ Mr. BoatengTables showing the numbers of newly diagnosed cases, and crude and directly age standardised rates per 100,000 population for all leukaemias (ICD8 204–207, ICD9 204–208) and cancers of the central nervous system (ICD 8 and 9, 191–192), for children 477W (aged under 15) in a) England and Wales, and (b) East Anglian Regional Health Authority, in the years 1971–1992, have been placed in the Library.
The trends were examined by fitting regressions to each time series. The results were:
LeukaemiasEngland and WalesThe directly age standardised rates in males showed a rise of 10 per cent. over the 21 year period; the trend was at borderline significance—p = 0.1.The directly age standardised rates in females showed a 19 per cent. rise between 1971 and 1992; the trend was significant at the 5 per cent. Level—p = 0.01East Anglian RHAThere was a downward trend in the rates for males, not quite reaching significance at the 5 per cent. level, but visual inspection shows a step at the end of the 1970s (higher in the 1970s and lower in the 1980s) with no obvious trend over the last 14 years.There was no trend in the rates for females.Cancers of the central nervous systemThere were no significant trends at all in either England and Wales or the East Anglian RHA.It is difficult to separate true increases in incidence from improvements in case ascertainment by regional cancer registers. The number of cases in England and Wales for leukaemia and cancers of the central nervous system are not large compared with all ages and other cancers, and the numbers for the East Anglian RHA are very small, hence the apparent large fluctuations in numbers and rates from year to year.
The Childhood Cancer Research Group (CCRG), which receives core and project funding from the Department and the Scottish Office, has examined trends in incidence of childhood cancers. They have found little evidence of any increase in incidence of cancers of the central nervous system. There appears to be a small increase in childhood leukaemias but it is not possible to draw any conclusions at this stage about the possible causes of this. The CCRG will continue to investigate trends in incidence and the possible causes of any increase, or decrease, in the incidence of these malignancies.