§ Mr. MaudeTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what are his cyclically adjusted estimates for(a) total managed expenditure, (b) general Government receipts, (c) public sector net borrowing, (d) public sector net cash requirement and (e) net public sector debt (i) in cash terms, and (ii) as a percentage of gross domestic product, for (1) 1998–99, (2) 1999–2000, (3) 2000–01, (4) 2001–02, (5) 2002–03 and (6) 2003–04, assuming trend output is 1.5 per cent. above trend in the first half of 1997. [47135]
§ Mr. DarlingTable 4.1 of the Economic and Fiscal Strategy Report set out the economic assumptions underlying the public finance projections. If output were 1½ per cent. above trend in the first half of 1997, then the assumptions in the EFSR imply that it would be approximately 2 per cent. above trend in 1997–98 as a whole. Cyclically adjusted estimates of the public finances can be calculated using the Treasury's estimates of the effects of the economic cycle on the public finances set out in Treasury Occasional Paper No 4 "Public Finances and the Cycle", published in September 1995. The effects of the economic cycle should not be significantly different between total managed expenditure and general government expenditure, or between public 31W sector net borrowing and the public sector net cash requirement. The Treasury does not calculate cyclically-adjusted measures of public sector debt.