§ Mr. FlynnTo ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what is the projected prison population for each of the next 10 years. [46581]
§ Ms Quin[holding answer 19 June 1998]: Projections are currently available through to 2005. A projection which assumes that trends in sentencing which have been observed over the last 20 years continue, is as follows:
Annual averages 1998 65,000 1999 69,600 2000 72,200 2001 73,700 2002 75,800 2003 78,000 2004 80,400 2005 82,800 Alternative scenarios are available which give a prison population by 2005 of 92,600 (custody rates and sentence lengths increase at about the rate observed between 1992 and 1996) or of 64,400 (custody rates and sentence lengths remain at 1997 level). The projection does not take into account the effect of Home Detention Curfew, which is included in the Crime and Disorder Bill [Lords]. The effect of the Home Detention Curfew, when implemented, is estimated to bring a reduction in the prison population, below what it would otherwise be, of between 3,000 to 4,000.
The most recent projections were published in Home Office Statistical Bulletin 2/98 "Revised Projections of Long Term Trends in the Prison Population to 2005" on 29 January 1998. A copy of the bulletin is available in the Library. The bulletin describes the methodology of the projection in more detail.