§ Ms Julie MorganTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer how many women in Wales he estimates will benefit from the national minimum wage. [47846]
§ Mrs. Liddell[holding answer 29 June 1998]: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the Chief Executive of the Office for National Statistics. I have asked him to reply.
Letter from Tim Holt to Ms Julie Morgan, dated 1 July 1998:
As the Director of the Office for National Statistics (ONS), I have been asked to reply to your parliamentary question on the effect of the national minimum wage in Wales.The national minimum wage will become effective in April 1999 and has been set at £3.60 for employees aged over 21 and £3.00 for those aged 18 to 21, although there are a number of qualifications to this general observation.The Low Pay Commission, in arriving at their recommendations, had to adjust 1999 pay rates to 1997 values. Their methodology produces £2.80 and £3.40 as the 1997 values of the government's preferred rates and I have provided supplementary data for these levels.The attached table presents adjusted New Earnings Survey (NES) and Labour Force Survey (LFS) data for the number of women aged over 212 years in Wales earning less than £3.40 and £3.60. These estimates are based on the preferred method for assessing the coverage of the proposed national minimum wage. This method reflects the fact that the NES is based on a one percent sample of employees in the PAYE system and is therefore likely to under-represent relatively low paid staff, earning below the tax-threshold, and in particular those who work part-time. The extent of this bias may be estimated for Wales by using data from the NES augmented by data from the LFS.There are too few women in our sample for us to use this preferred method for those aged 18 to 21 in Wales, so we have provided information solely from the NES. At the UK level adjusted 185W NES and LFS data show that the NES understates the percentage of 18 to 21 year olds earning less than £3.00 by around 6 per cent. This gives an indication of the likely degree of bias in the NES estimate.
Adjusted New Earnings Survey and Labour Force Survey estimates—Wales—Spring 1997 Number (thousand) Percentage Women aged over 21 years earning less than: £3.40 82–98 17.3–20.8 £3.60 101–119 21.5–25.2
New Earnings Survey—April 1997—Wales1 Percentage of employees with hourly earnings excluding overtime and shift payments less than: £2.80 £3.00 Employees aged 18–21 on all rates of pay All women 7.1 9.5 1Employees whose pay for the survey pay-period was unaffected by absence