HC Deb 27 January 1998 vol 305 c154W
Dr. Cable

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimate he has made of the impact of a 10 per cent. rise in the trade-weighted value of sterling on(a) real GDP, (b) manufacturing output, (c) manufacturing employment, (d) export volumes and (e) import volumes. [25232]

Mrs. Liddell

The effects of a rise in the exchange rate are difficult to isolate and estimate with confidence. Generally, a sterling appreciation in the short term will tend to lead to lower GDP, manufacturing output, employment, and exports, and to higher imports, all compared to what they otherwise would have been. But such effects may be masked by other factors such as the relative strength of demand in the UK compared with the rest of the world and policy responses.