§ Mr. BeithTo ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department if he will make a statement on the latest Prison Service prison population projections; and what financial plans have been made to meet those projections. [28847]
§ Ms QuinThe latest projection of long-term trends in the prison population was published on 29 January 1998. It estimates that the prison population will increase from the current level of around 64,000 to an average of 69,600 in 1999 and 72,200 in the year 2000. If trends in court sentencing practice continue as in recent years the population is expected to reach 82,800 by 2005. Alternative scenarios in the projection give a population for 2005 of between 64,400 and 92,600.
The projection does not take account of Home Detention Curfew which is expected to result in a fall of around 3,000 prisoners by the end of 1999. Nor does it take account of the measures in the Crime and Disorder Bill or possible changes in trends in community sentences.
To accommodate the rising population, my right hon. Friend has made an adjustment to the additional resources made available to the Prison Service last July. I refer the right hon. Member to the reply my right hon. Friend gave to my hon. Friend the Member for Broxtowe (Dr. Palmer) on 13 February 1998, Official Report, columns 402–03.
The additions to capacity together with the implementation of Home Detention Curfew should contain the projected prison population below planned capacity until 2001. The building of new prison capacity beyond 2001 is under discussion as part of the Comprehensive Spending Review.