§ Mr. EdwardsTo ask the Secretary of State for Wales what is the predicted total growth in the all-Wales private household population over the period 1998 to 2016(a) as a percentage and (b) as a numerical value. [28143]
§ Mr. Win GriffithsIt is estimated from the 1994 based household projection that the total private household population in Wales will rise from 2,889,000 in 1998 to 2,913,000 in 2016. This represents a growth of(a) 0.8 per cent. (b) 24,000 compared with 1998. Details of the method used in the projection and notes on the reliability of the estimates can be found in 1994 Based Household Projections for Wales, a copy of which is in the Library.
§ Mr. EdwardsTo ask the Secretary of State for Wales what are the projected annual private household numbers for the county of Monmouthshire each year from 1994 to 2019–20. [28147]
§ Mr. Win GriffithsHousehold estimates from the 1994 based household projection for the county of Monmouthshire for each year from 1994 to 2016, the last year of projection, are shown in the following table. Details of the method used in the projection and notes on the reliability of the estimates can be found in 1994 Based Household Projections for Wales, a copy of which is in the Library.
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Projected households for county of Monmouthshire Year1 Number 1994 33,400 1995 34,000 1996 34,500 1997 35,500 1998 35,500 1999 36,100 2000 36,600 2001 37,100 2002 37,600
Projected households for county of Monmouthshire Year1 Number 2003 38,100 2004 38,600 2005 39,200 2006 39,700 2007 40,200 2008 40,700 2009 41,200 2010 41,700 2011 42,200 2012 42,600 2013 43,100 2014 43,600 2015 44,000 2016 44,400 1 At 30 June each year.
§ Mr. EdwardsTo ask the Secretary of State for Wales what is the predicted total growth in the private household population in Monmouthshire over the period 1998 to 2016(a) as a percentage and (b) as a numerical value. [28146]
§ Mr. Win GriffithsIt is estimated from the 1994 based household projection that the total private household population in Monmouthshire will rise from 85,800 in 1998 to 97,700 in 2016. This represents a growth of(a) 13.8 per cent., (b) 11,900 compared with 1998. Details of the method used in the projection and notes on the reliability of the estimates can be found in 1994 Based Household Projections for Wales, a copy of which is in the Library.
§ Mr. EdwardsTo ask the Secretary of State for Wales what are the projected annual net migration rates into Wales for the private household population for each of the years 1990–91 to 2019–20. [28144]
§ Mr. Win GriffithsThe available estimates from the Office for National Statistics' mid-year estimates and the Government Actuary's Department's 1996-based population projections relate to all civilian migration, not just private households. The figures are shown in the following table:
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Estimated net civilian migration into Wales1 Year Net inward migrants 1991 9,000 1992 1,800 1993 2,200 1994 3,800 1995 3,500 1996 5,700 1997 7,000 1998 6,000 1999 5,500 2000 5,500 2001 5,500 2002 5,500 2003 5,500 2004 5,500 2005 5,500 2006 5,500 2007 5,500 2008 5,500 2009 5,500 2010 5,500 2011 5,500 2012 5,500 2013 5,500
Estimated net civilian migration into Wales1 Year Net inward migrants 2014 5,500 2015 5,500 2016 5,500 2017 5,500 2018 5,500 2019 5,500 2020 5,500 1 In 12 months to 30 June each year. Sources
1990–91 to 1995–96: Office for National Statistics' mid year estimates.
1996–97 to 2019–20: Government Actuary's Department's 1996-based national population projections.
§ Mr. EdwardsTo ask the Secretary of State for Wales in what circumstances a unitary authority would be permitted to provide for substantially less new housing than is predicted in the Welsh Office household apportionment. [28145]
§ Mr. Win GriffithsThe Welsh Office's 1994 Based Household Projections for Wales are essentially trend based and do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies. They should be used as a base for policy projections.
Where a local planning authority's policy based provisions differ from these projections the differences should be fully justified in the development plan. The Secretary of State will consider intervening where the justification for the development plan figures is either unsound or unacceptable.