HL Deb 22 April 1998 vol 588 cc215-6WA
Lord Ackner

asked Her Majesty's Government:

What are the projected figures, for those serving life imprisonment in 2008, for:

  1. (a) the total number;
  2. (b) the number sentenced for murder;
  3. (c) the number sentenced under Section 2 of the Crime (Sentences) Act 1997; and
  4. (d) those whose life sentences were discretionary. [HL1505]

Lord Williams of Mostyn

No projections of the prison population are available beyond the year 2005, but it is expected that by then the number of life sentence prisoners will be 5,800. Separate projections are not available for murderers or discretionary life sentence prisoners, but it is estimated that there will be 900 prisoners serving an automatic life sentence for a second serious violent or sexual offence under Section 2 of the Crime (Sentences) Act 1997. Not all of these 900 prisoners represent additional prison places, since around half would have been prisoners under previous legislation serving either life or determinate sentences.

The projection is consistent with the central projection published on 29 January 1998 in the Home Office Statistical Bulletin 2/98, Revised Projections of Long Term Trends in the Prison Population to 2005. The central projection carries forward long term trends in the prison population. This gives an annual average prison population of 82,800 in 2005. The bulletin also gives projections for alternative scenarios giving prison populations of between 64,400 and 92,600 in 2005. A copy of the bulletin is available in the Library.