§ Mr. FlynnTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security, pursuant to her answer of 13 March 1998,Official Report, column 394, what rate of real increase in average earnings is assumed in her estimate that Class 1 National Insurance contribution rates would stay constant if pensions and linked benefits were uprated by earnings in April 1999. [35925]
§ Mr. DenhamThe analysis used an assumption based on data and evidence available at the time of the Pre-Budget Report. Although the extra cost of uprating in line with earnings would be £260 million, the rounding conventions used to calculate National Insurance contributions mean that the difference between the earnings assumption and the price assumption leads to a cost which is insufficient to trigger a change in the National Insurance contribution rate for April 1999.
§ Dr. Lynne JonesTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security how many people have paid employees' national insurance contributions in each of the last 20 years; and what information she has on the likely numbers paying in each of the next 20 years. [37547]
§ Mr. DenhamThe information is set out in the table.
The Department makes no estimates of the number of employees who are likely to pay National Insurance contributions in future years. However, the Government Actuary undertakes a Quinquennial Review of the operation of the Social Security Acts to estimate the rates of contribution likely to be required in future years to meet the costs of benefits provided for under the National Insurance Scheme. The assumed number of future contributors in his Report on the Third Quinquennial Review under Section 137 of the Social Security Act 1975 published on 31 January 19951 was, in an average week, 22.7 million for the year 2000, 24.0 million for 2010 and 24.0 million for 2020.
The estimates for future years in the Government Actuary's report are based on a number of underlying economic and demographic assumptions. These include projections of the number of employees and self-employed people, assumptions about earnings and the level of the lower earnings limit and the level of unemployment. From these assumptions the Government Actuary derives the estimated average number of contributors in any week for future years. However, these estimates are not directly comparable with those for previous years given in the table. The figures in the table 378W show the actual number of employees who paid some contributions during the tax year, and will therefore be higher than figures which show the weekly average.
Number of employees in Great Britain who paid National Insurance Contributions in each tax year, from 1978–79 to 1995–96 000 Tax year Number of contributors 1978–79 23,684 1979–80 23,911 1980–81 23,074 1981–82 21,991 1982–83 21,502 1983–84 21,376 1984–85 21,431 1985–86 21,702 1986–87 21,908 1987–88 22,426 1988–89 22,961 1989–90 23,246 1990–91 23,180 1991–92 22,376 1992–93 21,894 1993–94 21,749 1994–95 22,022 1995–96 22,151 Notes:
1. Report by the Government Actuary on the Third Quinquennial Review under Section 137 of the Social Security Act 1975 (HC 160).
2. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand.
3. Includes all employees who have paid Class 1 not-contracted out, contracted out and married women's reduced rate contributions in each tax year.
Source:
DSS: Lifetime Labour Market Database which contains a 1 per cent. sample from the National Insurance Recording System (NIRS) taken at February 1997.