§ Mr. Gordon PrenticeTo ask the Secretary of State for Health what estimates he has made of the likely additional future demand for renal dialysis in East Lancaster; and if he will make a statement.[15196]
§ Mr. BoatengEast Lancashire Health Authority, in conjunction with the three other health authorities in Lancashire and South Cumbria, has commissioned a statistical modelling exercise to predict the numbers of residents likely to require renal dialysis up to the year 2005. The modelling exercise is complex and is able to take into account special factors such as the age structure of the population and the proportion of residents from an ethnic minority background.
The model predicts a very substantial increase in the total number of residents requiring dialysis, from 120 in 1996 to 220 in 2005. In order to meet the predicted demand for dialysis places over the next 10 years, East Lancashire Health Authority is about to consider the best way of increasing local provision.