HC Deb 03 November 1997 vol 300 cc54-5W
Mrs. Brinton

To ask the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions (1) what proportion of the projected increase in demand for housing is for rented accommodation;[13009]

(2) what estimates he has made of future changes in the demand for rented accommodation; and what evidence these are based on. [13010]

Mr. Raynsford

My Department published a paper in May 1995 ("Provisional for Social Housing—Background Analysis: Households in England, their Housing Tenure and the Housing Stock, 1991–2001") analysing the way in which population changes and household growth might alter the demand for housing in England by main tenure over the period 1991 to 2001. This indicated a newly arising need for social housing of between 60,000 and 100,000 units per annum.

The range of demand for additional social housing was calculated by taking the Department's official projection of the growth in household numbers over the 10-year period and subtracting estimated growth in owner occupation. Estimates were based essentially on past trends. The methodology assumed that overall size of the private rented sector would remain unchanged over the 10-years (though in practice it has expanded). Specific adjustments were made for Right To Buy sales, demolitions, etc.

In November 1995, my Department commissioned the Department of Applied Economics at the University of Cambridge to undertake a feasibility study to develop an economic model of the demand and need for social housing in England between 1996 and 2006. A technical report on this study will be published shortly.