§ Mr. PriorTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security for what reasons the(a) unemployment and (b) total cost of cyclical social security is forecast to 2002; and what reasons this date is different from the date to which unemployment is forecast. [6837]
§ Mr. DarlingI have been asked to reply.
There is no published forecast of unemployment, in line with conventions adopted by previous Governments. For the purposes of prudent planning of public finances, expenditure plans assume that unemployment remains at present levels, in line with long-established convention used before the 1996 Budget, and approved by the National Audit Office.
748WLatest forecasts of cyclical social security for the period 1997–98 to 1998–99 are set out in table 4.6 of the "Financial Statement and Budget Report" 2 July 1997. They are based on the assumption that UK unemployment will be flat at its recent level of 1.65 million—para 4.28. In the absence of spending commitments for future years, three variants for medium-term projections of total general Government expenditure were published in table 4.7, although cyclical social security was not shown explicitly.
The November 1996 FSBR gave projections to 1999–2000 based on the economic assumptions of the public expenditure survey—given on page 117. Projections for 2000–01 and 2001–02, the two years beyond the survey period, were based on illustrative unemployment assumptions.