§ Mr. SalmondTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) pursuant to his answer of 25 November,Official Report, column 68, if he will estimate the total relative surplus or deficit of Government expenditure and revenue in Scotland for each year from 1978–79, assuming a constant relationship between the Scottish deficit, as published in the "Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland 1994–95", and the United Kingdom general
Estimates of Scotland's share of the UK General Government Borrowing Requirement (GGBR), assuming a GDP share of privatisation proceeds and 90 per cent. of North Sea oil revenues £ billion UK GGBR excluding privatisation proceeds (pps) and North Sea oil revenues Scotland's share of column 1 for 1994–951 (per cent.) Scotland's implied share of UK GGBR excluding North Sea oil revenues and pps 90 per cent. of oil revenues, and GDP share of UK pps2 Implied estimates of Scotland's GGBR Implied estimates of Scotland's GGBR, 1996–97 prices3 1978–79 9.4 17.9 1.7 0.5 1.2 3.6 1979–80 13.2 17.9 2.4 2.2 0.2 0.4 1980–81 17.5 17.9 3.1 3.4 -0.3 -0.6 1981–82 13.5 17.9 2.4 4.1 -1.6 -3.3 1982–83 15.9 17.9 2.8 4.9 -2.1 -3.9 1983–84 19.8 17.9 3.6 8.0 -4.5 -7.9 1984–85 23.3 17.9 4.2 11.0 -6.8 -11.5 1985–86 20.9 17.9 3.7 10.4 -6.7 -10.7 1986–87 14.1 17.9 2.5 4.7 -2.2 -3.4 1987–88 7.8 17.9 1.4 4.6 -3.2 -4.7 1988–89 -1.5 17.9 –0.3 3.4 -3.7 -5.1 1989–90 -0.0 17.9 -0.0 2.5 -2.5 -3.2 1990–91 7.1 17.9 1.3 2.5 -1.3 -1.6 1991–92 22.8 17.9 4.1 1.6 2.5 2.9 1992–93 47.3 17.9 8.5 1.9 6.6 7.2 1993–94 53.5 17.9 9.6 1.6 8.0 8.5 1994–95 45.8 17.9 8.2 2.0 6.2 6.5 Total -26.7 UK GGBR. Source: Public Finance Trends, 1996. A negative figure indicates a budget surplus. 1 Source: Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland 1994–95, and Public Finance Trends 1996. 2 Scotland's GDP at factor cost (current prices) as a percentage of GDP in the UK less Continental Shelf, calendar years. Source: Regional Trends, 1996. 3 Based on the Budget forecast of the GDP deflator in 1996–97.