§ Lord Northbourneasked Her Majesty's Government:
Whether the figure of 4¼ million new homes forecast to be required in the next five years is correct; and if so, what proportion of this increased demand is attributable to (a) family breakdown; and (b) the increasing popularity of second homes.
§ The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (Baroness Hayman)The projections, which cover the 25-year period 1991 to 2016, are for 4.4 million additional households not houses, and were published in 1995 in my department's documentProjections of Households in England to 2016. They are only one of the factors that regional conferences of local authorities have to take into consideration when advising the Secretary of State on housing requirements in Regional Planning Guidance (RPG). I am satisfied that the projections were the best that could be made with the available data and that they accurately reflect recent trends. The methodology to produce them has been soundly endorsed by independent inquiries, 109WA including the Environment Select Committee of the House of Commons in their Second Report on Housing Need (12 February 1996 HOC11/i/1995/1996).
Around 33 per cent. of the increase is due to behavioural changes, namely projected changes in the rate of household formation brought about by such factors as people marrying later, and more divorces and separations. It is not easy to categorise family breakdown simply. Furthermore, not all family breakdown will lead to the formation of additional households. However, the group of households consisting of people living by themselves who are divorced and separated is projected to grow by a further 1.2 million between 1991 and 2016, with divorced and separated men representing two-thirds of this growth.
The demand for second homes does not form a part of the household projections but it is one of the factors to he considered by regional planning conferences in formulating housing provision in RPG.