§ Mr. Tom KingTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions what estimates of the levels of cohabitation were included in the latest household projections; and to what extent these differ from previous projections. [18604]
§ Mr. RaynsfordThe most recent, 1992-based household projections were the first to use co-habiting couples as a separate household category for estimation purposes. This followed the inclusion of "living together as a couple" for the first time as a recognised relationship in the 1991 Census. It is not possible, therefore, to make comparisons with previous projections about assumed levels of cohabitation.
The levels of co-habitation assumed for the latest households projections were the 1992-based projections of marital status made by the Government Actuary's Department. A detailed description of the methodology and statistical assumptions underlying the latest household projections is set out in the annexes of "Projections in
416W
Thousands Housebuilding Household projections—increase in households 1991–96 1991–96 1981-based 1983-based 1985-based 1989-based 1992-based Cleveland 8.1 2 4 2 3 7 Durham 7.8 3 2 3 4 8 Northumberland 4.7 2 3 4 4 5 Tyne and Wear 13.0 -2 -4 0 6 17 Cheshire 15.7 14 15 17 22 20 Cumbria 7.4 3 3 6 10 8 Greater Manchester 36.0 2 6 11 25 35 Lancashire 20.3 11 10 12 23 22 Merseyside 20.0 -4 -2 -4 0 14 Humberside 16.0 7 6 6 15 17 North Yorkshire 14.2 9 10 14 21 16 South Yorkshire 14.4 9 6 5 15 18 West Yorkshire 27.0 11 11 15 28 38 Derbyshire 17.0 8 11 12 18 19 Leicestershire 15.4 14 13 15 22 23 Lincolnshire 16.3 5 12 15 17 17 Northamptonshire 14.3 14 13 16 20 14 Nottinghamshire 14.9 11 12 17 22 21 Hereford and Worcester 15.6 15 14 15 18 18 Shropshire 9.9 8 8 11 12 10 Stafforshire 17.3 14 13 15 21 18 Warwickshire 8.8 8 8 9 9 10 West Midlands 26.0 11 6 13 22 29 Bedford 11.2 10 10 12 13 14 Cambridgeshire 15.1 14 15 23 28 25 Essex 29.4 27 25 30 34 34 Hertfordshire 17.8 20 19 22 18 22 Morfolk 19.7 11 11 16 19 19 Suffolk 13.6 11 13 16 14 12 Greater London 75.5 12 37 80 74 144 Households in England to 2016", published by the Stationery Office in March 1995. The treatment of the marital status projections and cohabitation is provided in Annexes D and G of this publication, a copy of which is in the Library of the House.
§ Mr. Tom KingTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions how many homes were built in each English county between 1991 and 1996; and what change in the number of households was previously projected over those years. [18598]
§ Mr. RaynsfordThe information requested is provided below. The total number of new dwellings built, by county, covers the period from July 1991 to June 1996. The figures for successive sets of household projections are the differences between the published projected figures for mid-year 1996 and mid-year 1991. These are subject to rounding error as the published figures are only readily available to the nearest thousand.
It is not appropriate to make a direct comparison between the number of dwellings built between 1991 and 1996 and the projected number of households forming over that period, for two reasons. First, the household projections are not an estimate of the number of additional houses which have to be built in any period. Rather, they represent one of the factors to be taken into account by local planning authorities when arriving at figures for housing provision to be included in regional guidance and development plans. Secondly, the housebuilding figures do not include other sources of new dwellings such as conversions. Furthermore, the 1992-based household projections were not published until March 1995 and most county structure plans prepared since 1991 have used earlier household projections as the basis for planning housing provision.
417W
Thousands Housebuilding Household projections—increase in households 1991–96 1991–96 1981-based 1983-based 1985-based 1989-based 1992-based Berkshire 11.5 23 20 19 25 24 Buckinghamshire 18.8 21 21 24 27 23 East Sussex 10.9 13 5 14 17 13 Hampshire 26.4 27 40 45 41 36 Isle of Wight 1.9 2 1 2 2 1 Kent 20.2 23 22 27 32 27 Oxfordshire 12.9 15 11 15 21 16 Surrey 14.4 17 17 21 12 17 West Sussex 12.9 18 14 17 17 14 Avon 13.9 16 10 17 19 22 Cornwall 6.4 9 9 11 11 11 Devon 16.7 15 17 22 27 23 Dorset 13.0 16 13 16 19 16 Gloucestershire 10.8 9 8 10 13 13 Somerset 6.8 10 9 10 12 12 Wiltshire 13.8 10 15 17 19 18 England 753.5 522 544 714 874 962
§ Mr. Tom KingTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions which county councils have been written to by Ministers in respect of the housing numbers being proposed in structure plans. [18607]
§ Mr. RaynsfordSince the responsibility for adopting structure plans passed to local authorities, the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions has written to the following county councils in respect of proposed housing numbers in their plans:
- Bedfordshire
- Berkshire
- Cheshire
- Devon
- Dorset
- Hampshire
- Hertfordshire
- Kent
- Oxfordshire
- Somerset
- West Sussex
- Wiltshire.
§ Mr. Tom KingTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions which county structure plans have been adopted with housing requirements lower than those set out in regional planning guidance. [18606]
§ Mr. RaynsfordOf the counties that have adopted their structure plans after the publication of the Regional Planning Guidance for the region concerned, two have adopted housing figures lower than those in the RPG. In both cases the differences were marginal. The counties concerned were Buckinghamshire (64,000 compared to an RPG figure of 65,340) and Surrey (35,600 compared to an RPG figure of 36,000).