§ Mr. Ian McCartneyTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) how many people would have been included in the unemployed claimant count if the changes in the method of calculation since 1979 had not taken place; [1142]
(2) if he will list the changes made in the unemployed claimant count since 1979, outlining how many people were added or removed from the claimant count figures as a result of each change; [1141]
(3) how many people are excluded from the unemployed claimant count because they are in dispute with the Employment Service. [1145]
§ Mrs. Angela KnightThe information falls within the responsibility of the chief executive of the Office for National Statistics. I have asked him to arrange for a reply to be given.
Letter from Tim Holt to Mr. Ian McCartney, dated 11 November 1996:
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has asked me to reply as the Director of the Office for National Statistics to the three questions you have tabled on the coverage of the claimant count measure of unemployment.Current numbers on old definitionsIt is not ONS policy to make estimates of the numbers of people who would be included in the monthly claimant count if the benefit rules which were in place in 1979 still applied. Such estimates would be unreliable as they would relate to hypothetical situations and would therefore involve unwarranted speculation about the behaviour of individuals. We do however assess the impact of each relevant benefit change and if necessary recast the seasonally adjusted series to give an estimate of the claimant count, based on its current coverage, which is consistent over time. The latest consistent historic time series, available from January 1971 for the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland and from April 1974 for the standard regions, can be accessed from the NOMIS database in the House of Commons Library.Changes in the count since 1979An article entitled Changes to the coverage of the monthly count of claimant unemployment was published in the November 1995 edition of Labour Market Trends. This provides a complete listing of changes in the coverage of the monthly claimant unemployment count, including nine which were significant enough in the view of government statisticians to warrant a recasting of the consistent seasonally adjusted series. Past editions of Labour Market Trends are available in the House of Commons Library.Claimants who are in dispute with the Employment ServicePeople whose claims are going through the adjudication process at the time the monthly figures are compiled will be included in the monthly count. Statistics on the outcomes of adjudication are published quarterly by the Employment Service in Analysis of Adjudication Officer's Decisions. No statistics are available on the numbers included in the claimant count who subsequently cease claiming after an adjudication decision has been made against them. The Employment Service publication is also available in the Library.