HC Deb 06 November 1996 vol 284 cc547-8W
Mr. Gordon Prentice

To ask the Secretary of State for Social Security if he will estimate the cost of the basic rate pension(a) indexed to prices and (b) indexed to earnings in 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 on the basis of the 1994 OPCS population projections; and if he will estimate the comparable costs, on the same assumptions and for the same years, on the basis of the 1992 Office of Population Censuses and Surveys population projections.[2292]

Mr. Heald

The information is in the table:

£ billion
Estimated expenditure on basic state pension 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Price uprating 1992 population projection 30.7 34.6 36.5 44.2 47.1 44.9
Price uprating 1994 population projection 30.3 33.6 35.4 43.4 46.7 44.4
Earnings uprating 1992 population projection 32.6 42.6 52.2 73.3 90.7 100.4
Earnings uprating 1994 population projection 32.2 41.3 50.7 71.9 89.9 99.2
1. Estimated expenditure is shown in 1996 benefit rate terms, rounded to the nearest £0.1 billion.
2. Estimated expenditure on basic state pension using the 1992 population projections is based on the report by the Government Actuary on the third quinquennial review under section 137 of the Social Security Act 1975 and the Pensions Bill 1994 report by the Government Actuary on the financial provisions of the bill on the national insurance fund as appropriate. It is based on 1996–97 benefit rates, is for Great Britain, assumes equalisation of state pension ages and excludes graduated pensions and additional pension.
3. Earnings uprating figures assume that earnings increase faster than prices by 1.5 per cent. per annum commencing with the uprating in April 1997.
4. Estimated expenditure on basic state pension using the 1994 population projections has been obtained by adjusting the expenditure figures described in note 2 in the light of the different numbers in the population over state pension age in the 1992 and 1994 population projections. It is based on 1996–97 benefit rates, is for Great Britain, assumes equalisation of state pension ages and excludes graduated pension and additional pension.