§ Mr. Alex CarlileTo ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what are the latest re-conviction rates in the(a) one year and (b) two years following (i) release from custody and (ii) completion of community supervision for each police authority in England and Wales; if he will indicate the methodology used and the associated research; and if he will make a statement. [31387]
§ Miss WiddecombeWith respect to (i), the most recent available information relates to a sample of sentenced prisoners discharged from custody during 1992. The table additionally contains re-conviction rates within one and two years of commencement of probation or community service based on a sample of offenders commencing orders in 1992.
Differences between re-conviction rates cannot simply be taken to show that one disposal is better than another. For example, the type of offenders will vary between disposals and there are other important factors discussed later in my answer.
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Re-conviction rates within one and two years of discharge from prison or of commencement of probation or community service orders in 1992. Figures in brackets give the range above and below the estimate that rates are likely to vary according to change1 Discharged from custody Commencing probation or community service Police authority Number sampled 1 year percentage re-convicted 2 year percentage re-convicted Number sampled 1 year percentage re-convicted 2 year percentage re-convicted Greater Manchester 1,313 45(4) 59(4) 928 49(4) 65(4) Hampshire 425 39(6) 52(6) 369 45(6) 56(6) Hertfordshire 236 34(8) 44(8) 158 40(9) 52(9) Humberside 383 33(6) 52(6) 268 41(7) 61(7) Kent 420 33(6) 49(6) 296 39(7) 55(7) Lancashire 555 42(5) 60(5) 403 42(6) 59(6) Leicestershire 348 37(7) 54(7) 174 41(8) 57(9) Lincolnshire 125 40(11) 52(11) 157 47(9) 59(9) London City of2 51 16(15) 20(15) — — — Merseyside 641 44(5) 60(5) 427 54(5) 68(5) Metropolitan 4,256 25(2) 39(2) 1,310 33(3) 47(3) Norfolk 220 42(9) 51(9) 146 42(10) 55(10) Northamptonshire 210 42(9) 65(9) 124 47(10) 54(10) Northumbria 597 42(5) 59(5) 382 42(6) 57(6) North Yorkshire 182 42(10) 63(9) 169 50(9) 63(9) Nottinghamshire 516 34(6) 48(6) 197 42(7) 54(7) South Yorkshire 469 34(6) 55(6) 358 44(6) 59(6) Staffordshire 341 38(7) 58(7) 286 36(7) 53(7) Suffolk 190 31(9) 49(9) 130 40(10) 54(10) Surrey 148 30(10) 39(10) 157 39(9) 58(9) Sussex 473 31(6) 43(6) 268 48(7) 61(7) Thames Valley 434 31(6) 45(6) 385 43(6) 57(6) Warwickshire 154 40(10) 53(10) 84 40(11) 53(12) West Mercia 282 34(7) 51(8) 225 40(8) 53(8) West Midlands 1,466 36(3) 51(3) 829 43(4) 56(4) West Yorkshire 903 38(4) 55(4) 740 44(4) 56(4) Wiltshire 108 40(13) 48(12) 167 43(10) 61(9) Dyfed Powys 95 33(11) 45(13) 114 47(11) 57(11) Gwent 165 33(9) 56(10) 151 43(10) 56(10) North Wales 209 37(8) 56(9) 114 41(10) 55(11) South Wales 535 43(5) 61(5) 536 50(6) 62(5) England and Wales 19,509 36(1) 51(1) 12,591 43(1) 57(1) 1 This range for chance variation is based on a 95 per cent. confidence interval, ie. the interval in which the true value is likely to lie for 19 out of 20 occasions. For example, the two-year rate for custody in Avon and Somerset is 60 per cent. and the 95 per cent. confidence interval has upper and lower bounds of 72 and 58 per cent. respectively. 2 Figures are not provided for the City of London police for the probation and community service sample because rates would be based on only 13 offenders. The methodology used to produce the rates for custody is described in the "Prison Statistics, England and Wales, 1994", Cm. 3087; a similar methodology was used to produce the rates for community supervision, described in "Probation Statistics, England and Wales, 1994". Some categories of offender were sampled more intensively than others to obtain better estimates for sub-groups.
The Police Authority was identified by reference to records relating to the last conviction for a standard list offence prior to release from prison or commencement of an order; usually this is the conviction that gives rise to the custodial sentence or the community supervision.
The samples for analysis were drawn with the purpose of producing results at the England and Wales level. Reconviction rates at the local level need to be interpreted with some caution as the size of the samples can be relatively small. For this reason, information on the numbers of offenders on which rates are based is included in the table, as well as information on the likely range of chance variation for estimates.
68WIt should also be noted that comparisons between reconviction rates are affected by differences in the age, sex, previous convictions and other characteristics of offenders receiving the sentences, as described in detail in Home Office research study No. 136, "Explaining reconviction rates; a critical analysis".
This study mainly discusses reconviction rates within two years of release from prison or commencement of an order. A two year follow-up period is more usual than a one year follow-up as a significant number of offenders are usually reconvicted in the period between the one and two year points.
It should be noted that an ex-prisoner discharged from prison is less likely to be convicted of offences committed before the release date—such offences could be dealt with while an offender is in prison—than an offender commencing community supervision would be in respect of offences committed before the commencement date for his or her order. Results in the study indicate that removing such offences from consideration is likely to decrease reconviction rates within two years of commencement of an order relative to those for immediate custody by about 4 percentage points.
69WFactors such as police clear-up rates are likely to be related to regional variations in reconviction rates. It is also known that the recording of convictions by the Metropolitan police between 1987 and 1992 was not complete and this will have had some effect on the results. This is discussed in appendix 2 of "Criminal Statistics, England and Wales, 1994", Cm 3010.
With respect to (ii) the most recently available information relates to a sample of offenders commencing probation or community service during 1987.
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Re-conviction rates within one and two years of completion of probation or community service based on a sample of offenders commencing orders in 1987. Figures in brackets give the range above and below the estimate that rates are likely vary according to chance1 Excluding reconvictions on termination date Including re-convictions on termination date Police authority Number sampled 1 year percentage reconvicted 2 year percentage reconvicted 1 year percentage reconvicted 2 year percentage reconvicted Avon and Somerset 469 32(6) 48(6) 43(6) 54(6) Bedfordshire 115 25(10) 44(12) 33(11) 50(12) Cambridgeshire 228 20(8) 41(10) 39(10) 49(10) Cheshire 173 30(8) 45(8) 40(8) 50(9) Cleveland 155 34(9) 55(9) 51(9) 62(9) Cumbria 182 48(10) 61(10) 53(10) 64(10) Derbyshire 128 32(8) 45(9) 43(9) 51(9) Devon and Cornwall 266 33(7) 51(8) 46(8) 58(7) Dorset 155 29(10) 48(10) 39(10) 53(10) Durham 153 27(9) 42(10) 36(9) 47(10) Essex 253 34(8) 43(8) 36(8) 44(8) Gloucestershire 172 28(9) 54(11) 43(11) 60(11) Greater Manchester 980 35(4) 50(4) 43(4) 54(4) Hampshire 398 24(5) 40(6) 33(6) 47(6) Hertfordshire 203 23(8) 35(9) 31(9) 40(9) Humberside 183 33(8) 45(9) 45(9) 53(9) Kent 253 26(6) 40(7) 35(7) 45(7) Lancashire 514 33(6) 51(6) 44(6) 57(6) Leicestershire 96 29(10) 46(11) 38(11) 51(11) Lincolnshire 92 47(11) 60(11) 56(11) 65(10) London City of2 — — — — — Merseyside 447 35(6) 50(6) 45(6) 54(6) Metropolitan 1,069 25(3) 36(3) 30(3) 40(3) Norfolk 117 45(11) 64(11) 55(11) 70(10) Northamptonshire 140 38(11) 52(11) 52(11) 60(11) Northumbria 305 31(6) 44(6) 37(6) 48(7) North Yorkshire 129 35(10) 45(10) 43(10) 50(10) Nottinghamshire 153 29(7) 45(8) 40(8) 53(8) South Yorkshire 397 32(5) 48(6) 43(6) 54(6) Staffordshire 190 28(7) 48(8) 38(8) 53(8) Suffolk 95 35(11) 52(11) 48(12) 60(11) Surrey 169 28(10) 39(11) 29(10) 40(11) Sussex 336 22(6) 37(7) 31(7) 42(7) Thames Valley 323 24(5) 36(6) 34(6) 43(6) Warwickshire 70 32(12) 47(13) 37(12) 51(12) West Mercia 165 37(8) 50(8) 45(8) 56(8) West Midlands 497 25(5) 42(5) 39(5) 49(5) West Yorkshire 544 26(4) 41(5) 36(5) 47(5) Wiltshire 108 26(10) 47(11) 33(11) 52(12) Dyfed Powys 98 28(13) 42(14 32(13) 45(14) Gwent 69 40(12) 58(12) 45(12) 61(12) North Wales 93 37(10) 60(10) 43(11) 62(10) South Wales 383 35(6) 54(7) 45(7) 59(7) England and Wales 11,083 30(1) 45(1) 39(1) 50(1) 1 This range for chance variation is based on a 95 per cent. confidence interval, ie., the interval in which the true value is likely to lie for 19 out of 20 occasions. 2 Figures are not provided for the City of London police because rates would be based on only 15 offenders. Reconviction rates that are usually quoted relate to reconviction within a set period following commencement of an order. Completion of an order does not necessarily imply completion without reoffending and a proportion of those completing orders will be reconvicted on the date of termination. For this reason, the following table quotes rates that both include and exclude reconvictions on the termination date. The overall reconviction rate within two years of completion is 45 per cent. if one excludes reconvictions on the termination date, but rises to 40 per cent. when they are included.
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