§ Mr. David ShawTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what assessment he has made of the capacity of the United Kingdom economy to meet the costs of public sector pensions which are currently unfunded when such liabilities fall due; and if he will estimate the impact in billions of pounds and as a percentage of gross domestic product such annual costs will have on public finances for each of the next 30 years based on current trends. [36392]
§ Mr. Heathcoat-AmoryBroadly speaking, unfunded public service pension liabilities rise in relation to GDP as schemes mature. Thereafter, the relationship should be relatively stable, depending on trends in public service pay and employment. Not all the schemes are similarly mature, and detail figuring on the basis proposed in the question is unavailable. Nevertheless, assuming pay rises do not exceed economic growth in the long term, the Government Actuary does not expect a substantial upward movement in unfunded public service pension liabilities in relation to GDP.