HC Deb 31 January 1996 vol 270 cc794-6W
Rev. Ian Paisley

To ask the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if he will make a statement on the cost benefit analysis check sensitivity test for induced traffic effects on the Balmoral-Malone roads traffic scheme; what estimate he has made of the time savings in pounds sterling for each of the 30 years' assumed life of the scheme from the COBA output; if he will indicate the total(a) vehicle kilometres and (b) number of predicated accidents by category for (i) the do nothing and (ii) do something options for (1) the opening year and (2) the design year (year 15); and if he will list the value accident savings in pounds sterling for each of the 30 year life discounted as for time savings. [11932]

Mr. Moss

The cost benefit analysis check sensitive test for induced traffic effects on the Malone road/Balmoral avenue traffic scheme shows that no induced traffic is expected as a result of this scheme.

The time savings, in sterling, for each of the 30 years' assumed life of the scheme based on low traffic growth and high traffic growth are as follows:

Savings £'000
Year Low Traffic Growth High Traffic Growth
1. 326 366
2. 315 348
3. 304 330
4. 286 316
5. 269 302
6. 254 283
7. 238 273
8. 224 272
9. 211 268
10. 200 265
11. 188 264
12. 176 255
13. 163 245
14. 156 252
15. 151 272
16. 146 313
17. 141 375
18. 135 535
19. 130 707
20. 126 684
21. 122 661
22. 117 637
23. 110 612
24. 102 587
25. 99 562
26. 98 537
27. 98 512
28. 100 487
29. 104 460
30. 111 429
Total 5,202 12,408

The total vehicle kilometers and number of pedicted accidents based on low high traffic growth are as follows:

Low Traffic Growth High Traffic Growth
Year Do nothing Do something Do nothing Do something
Vehicle kilometres in millions
1 15 15 15 15
15 19 19 22 22
Number of accidents
1 7.4 4.4 8.1 4.5
15 8.2 4.8 9.3 5.2

The value accident savings, in sterling, for each of the 30 year life of the scheme, based on the low and high traffic growth, are as in the table.

Value of savings £000
Year Low traffic growth High traffic growth
1. 40 49
2. 38 48
3. 36 46
4. 34 44
5. 32 43
6. 30 41
7. 29 39
8. 27 38
9. 26 37
10. 24 35
11. 23 34
12. 22 33
13. 21 32
14. 20 30
15. 19 29
16. 18 28
17. 17 27
18. 16 26
19. 15 25
20. 14 24
21. 14 23
22. 13 22
23. 12 21
24. 12 21
25. 11 20
26. 10 19
27. 10 18
28. 9 18
29. 9 17
30. 8 16
Total 608 902