§ Mr. Austin MitchellTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) what change took place in his growth forecast for 1995 between 28 November and 13 December and what are the implications for the growth84W forecast for 1996; and what changes he plans to make to that forecast; [7428]
(2) if he will list the growth differences for 1995 between (a) the Budget forecast and (b) evidence given to the Treasury and Civil Service Committee as a plus or minus effect on output in cash terms. [7632]
§ Mrs. Angela KnightThe Government's forecasts for GDP growth in 1995 and 1996 are set out in table 3.8 of the 1996–97 "Financial Statement and Budget Report". The Government publish only two forecasts a year—the Budget forecast and the summer economic forecast, which is normally published in late June.
An increase in GDP of 2½to 2¾per cent. in 1995 would be broadly in line with the economy's trend growth rate, and would represent a continuation of sustainable recovery.
§ Mr. MitchellTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his present growth estimate for 1995 and for 1996; and what were the equivalent forecasts produced by each member of the panel of independent forecasters. [7429]
§ Mrs. KnightThe Budget forecast of GDP growth in 1995 is 2¾per cent. As shown in table 3B.5 of the "Financial Statement and Budget Report". Five of the six panel members also forecast 2¾per cent. The sixth forecasts 2.6 per cent. The Budget forecast for growth in 1996 is 3 per cent. Four panel members forecast growth of 2.5 per cent. next year, one forecasts 2.9 per cent., and one 3.1 per cent.