§ Mr. CorbynTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment what is his Department's current estimate of the increase in global average temperatures over the next(a) five and (b) 10 years; and what were the estimates by his Department in each of the past five years. [15941]
§ Mr. ClappisonThe 1995 second scientific assessment from the intergovernmental panel on climate change—IPCC—suggests that the underlying rise in global average temperature will be about 0.1–0.2 deg C over the next decade. The actual temperature changes will be strongly affected by natural variability. The comparable estimate in the fist IPCC scientific assessment in 1990 was 0.3 deg C per decade; the 1995 estimate is lower because it has taken into account the cooling effect of aerosols produced by man-made sulphur dioxide emissions.